CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-09-22T22:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-09-22T22:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27076/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen nearly due south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery; the CME is likely associated with an M1.9-class flare and subsequent eruption from Active Region 13435 near center disk (N07W01) with an erupting magnetic loop, coronal spray, and series of brightenings from near the active region footpoints seen best in SDO 193 and 304. May partly be associated with a stray and faint erupting loop seen far off the southwest limb in SDO 171 near 2023-09-23T21:00Z but the timing of which the CME is first seen seems to be more likely in response to the center-disk eruptive signature. No clear arrival signature detected, although there is a relatively minor change in magnetic field on 2023-09-26T04:29Z and another one on 2023-09-26T10:58Z (but these signatures were determined inconclusive/minor).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-25T12:28Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 786.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 848.738 Acceleration: -1.64463 Duration in seconds: 223457.49 Duration in days: 2.5863136 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -1.64 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 481.2 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/09/2023 Time: 12:28 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 0.33 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-09-25T12:08Z
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